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Weekend Trend Trader, by Nick Radge
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The Weekend Trend Trader is a trading strategy designed for people who want a simple to follow trading plan that trades just once a week. An ideal investment strategy for people who work full time but are actively planning for their retirement. Weekend Trend Trader is designed for and tested on the US stock Market.
The Weekend Trend Trader strategy is a turnkey strategy that uses no discretion. In other words the strategy has a set of rules and users should understand why they entered a trade and when and how they will exit. Because the rules are strictly and mathematically defined we are able to back test the strategy on historical data. This enables us to understand the strategy's nuances and therefore better understand how the journey to success will be travelled. The strategy is a combination of several tools that 1.ensures you will always be aligned with the trend of the broader market, 2.enters positions at specific points and with reasonable confirmation, 3.manages existing positions with a trailing stop loss, 4.defends existing positions if the trend of the broader market reverses, 5.outlines how much to invest in each position. We will fully step through each of these points in detail and slowly build the system from the ground up.
Nick Radge is Head of Trading and Research at The Chartist, Australia, Nick has extensive experience designing and testing trading strategies. Nick actively trades both the US and Australian stock markets alongside his clients.
- Sales Rank: #518779 in eBooks
- Published on: 2013-11-14
- Released on: 2013-11-14
- Format: Kindle eBook
Most helpful customer reviews
20 of 23 people found the following review helpful.
A competent strategy and explanation, but could have been better
By Amazon Customer
I liked this short book because it provided a specific, workable, tradable, once a week, long-only trading strategy that would have allowed average investors with reasonable technical competence to outperform the SPX index (drastically, 27% to 6%) over the time range 1995-2000.
It's really important to understand that the reason for outperforming the SPX is because the strategy avoided the two big market down legs in 2000-2003 and 2008-2009. Any strategy that avoided those two huge down legs would also outperform the SPX.
So I think the book says: "Here's a long-only, weekly strategy (that you can execute) that will help you to avoid huge market down legs like those in 2000-2003 and 2008-2009."
The book does NOT say "Here is a strategy that will outperform the SPX by a lot under "normal" market conditions such as 1982-2000 that do not include huge down legs like 2000-2003, 2008-2009." (I am aware that my use of "normal market conditions" is easily open to argument, but I needed a simple word for conditions without huge down legs. Even talking about markets is messy, I know.)
I would easily recommend this book to anyone who is interested in disciplined, long-term, trend-following trading strategies. The author does a nice job of showing all the trading rules and providing brief computer simulation results from backtesting the strategy on small-cap stock market data for the simulation date range.
The main book argument is quite convincing, but some of the nuances might be lost on novice traders, so I will expand on a few of them below. These are not so much criticisms of the book content, but rather a discussion of several things that I think could have improved the book and made it more complete.
Choice of simulation range. It's well-known that the general stock markets ramped up drastically between 1995 and 2000, giving an abnormal advantage to any long only strategy that could avoid the following crash. Almost any long-only strategy would have impressive results over this timeframe. I make this point because any results that include this period of time probably overstate the average sort of returns that the strategy might deliver during "normal" markets.
I think the book could've done a better job by providing simulation results for the periods 1995-2000, 2000-2003, 2000-2007, and 2000-2012. This would've taken only a few more pages and charts in the book, but would have clearly shown the isolated effects of different sets of market data.
Choice of particular 20 stocks. The book does not go into which particular stocks were used for the simulation. If the 20 stocks used were particularly well-performing stocks on the upside, the simulation results would once again tend to overstate performance compared to a set of average or "normal" stocks. I think the book could have done a better job of describing the particular stocks used.
Choice of SPX as the only comparison. The long-only book strategy clearly outperforms the SPX because the SPX is an "always in" index. Thus the book strategy return is approximately the sum of only the upward gains during the periods 1995-2000 + 2003-2007 + 2009-2012, whereas the SPX return must include the two major down market legs of 2000-2003 + 2008-2009.
So the book comparison, while obviously true, is not very surprising. Almost any long-only strategy for 1995-2012 would also have outperformed the SPX. For example, I remember reading an FSN article about a simple moving average crossover strategy (10 wk SMA x 50 wk SMA) that also avoided the two major down legs.
If the main argument of the book is that the book strategy beat the SPX during 1995-2012, then the provided evidence clearly proves that claim. But I think the book could've done a more informative job by pointing out that any long-only strategy would also have outperformed the SPX, by virtue of avoiding those two major down legs.
My final point here is that the book strategy (and other similar long-only trend following strategies) only look really good during 1995-2012 because of the wild market conditions (wild dot-com rise, huge drop into 2003, wild ride up into 2007, huge global crash down into 2009, big climb into 2012), and not because the strategies are inherently or normally that profitable.
It's the pair (strategy + market conditions) that is profitable, not the strategy alone. If we do not continue to get those wild swings in the future, long-only trend following strategies are not going to be that profitable. (Of course, people can argue that the market swings are going to get even wilder with all the QE money printing (and maybe tapering) that drives markets these days, so maybe trend following is not a bad strategy to use... but that's another story.)
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Just a beginner
By Thomas B
I am just starting out and implementing this technique in software. So far, the process is described really well and I am excited to see the results. The author doesn't waste your time with any anecdotes. Mr. Radge describes the process how to apply it and is and out. I was able to get the gist in an afternoon and start building a platform for testing this strategy and hopefully more later.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Game changer strategy and coded system to generate solid returns in under 30min a week
By Al Dente
Thank you, Nick, for showing us individual investors a solid strategy that we can manage successfully, even with busy schedules. I was so impressed, I purchased your Amibroker WTT code and got that up and running quickly, and have been able to verify the results in the book as well as make a few changes to better suit my return/drawdown profile.
This is a truly unique book and system combo in that it goes beyond just publishing a book with some data and some ideas in there to the point where the interested reader can buy the system (very reasonably priced, especially if one pays in USD) and essentially run their retirement portfolio for the rest of their lives in 30min a week with little guesswork.
I heartily recommend The Weekend Trend Trader and the Amibroker code that's available from Nick's website if you want to leave the investment professionals in your rear view mirror and take control of your investment and retirement portfolios and generate very solid returns for 30min a week.
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